Argh

It's gonna get tedious:

While a recount seems likely, though, if it comes it will not come quickly.

According to a statement issued this month by the state’s Board of Elections, no request for a recount may be filed until the vote is certified, which is scheduled to happen this year on Nov. 27th.

After certification, a losing candidate has 10 days to file a recount request in the state courts. The petition will be considered by a panel made up of the Chief Judge of the Circuit Court in Richmond and two judges appointed by the Chief Justice of the state Supreme Court. Those judges then set out guidelines for conducting the recount.

Winds of Change

It's not every day that I link to Scorpions. Today is special.

Press Conference

Bush has called a press conference for 1 pm today. I think it's probably true that the basic motivation is to get his face out there as soon as possible and remind people that he's still in charge. I predict that he'll give a very condescending speech, something like:

On September 11th, 2001, we were attacked...it's time for Democrats to step up and show that they're serious...if Democrats want to work with us, then we welcome them and challenge them to be true leaders...blah blah blah

You get the drift.

Loser

The Fabled Machine

It would be beautiful and perfect if it were the case that the GOP turnout machine turned against them last night.

The WaPo Take

Here's the lede:

The political pendulum in American politics swung away from the right yesterday, putting an end to the 12-year Republican Revolution on Capitol Hill and delivering a sharp rebuke of President Bush and the Iraq war.

The GOP reign in the House that began with Newt Gingrich in a burst of vision and confrontation in 1994 came crashing down amid voter disaffection with congressional corruption. The collapse of one-party rule in Washington will transform Bush's final two years in office and challenge Democrats to make the leap from angry opposition to partners in power.

After a stifling six years or so, what a breath of fresh air. When was the last time we could say that our country is in good hands? Sure, Bush has two more years, but the handcuffs are getting tighter. More importantly, voters are recognizing what a rotten carcass Republicanism is. The neoconservative vision is dead. As the Post piece says, we are shifting to the left.

Meanwhile, sleepless and numb Republicans console themselves with cute animals.

South Dakota

Their abortion ban is headed for defeat.

Recounts and Rove

As an afterthought to the reader comment below, Josh warns that a Virginia recount would allow Rove plenty of opportunity to use his arsenal of dirty tricks, as he's done in Alabama before. My response would be that this race is much more in the lime-light and that the glare of national attention would make it much more difficult for him. A US Senate race is much different -- at least I hope so -- than an Alabama state race. And if the Senate power balance really comes down to a Virginia recount, every lawyer in each party is going to be heading there.

Morning Results

Dems take the House, Senate hingeing on Virginia and Montana. A TPM reader makes a good point:

The Republicans have backed themselves into a corner in Virginia. If you're going to go to the mat with dirty tricks and voter suppression, your counting on staying under the rader and that once the election is over, folks will move on. If Allen contests the results of the election it changes the election from a single day event into a 3 or 4 week event, plenty of time to chase down those callerid numbers and phone bank contractors. Virginia isn't Ohio. It doesn't have Ken Blackwell to cover up the GOP shenanigans, and the state has already requested the FBI to look into them. The Allen campaign is going to have to make the choice of whether contesting the results is worth the chance of exposing criminal activity. Let's hope they choose to contest. It's our best hope of fully exposing the shenanigans of the GOP to the light of day and getting the mechanisms in place to prevent their use in the next election cycle.

Second Set of Exits?

Raw Story is printing similar but slightly different early exits than MyDD, ThinkProgress and TNR, which is reassuring in that it might mean a second source.

The Evangelical Vote

The AP is reporting that white evangelicals were motivated by corruption and that a large percentage are leaning Dem.

2 Down

CNN calls Vermont and Indiana for Sanders and Lugar, respectively. No surprises.

Right Reaction

While Jonah is definitely trying to put a positive spin on the early exits, he's right that exit polls have been unreliable in the recent past, and Dems have had their hopes dashed against the rocks as a result.

Lamont

Apparently Lamont's in-house polling puts him ahead, but that seems very strange. I don't think he's led in a single poll since August.

Early Exits

Looking at TNR right now, it's clear that everyone's got the same sources. It does seem too good to be true. It's too early to be this optimistic.

CNN Specific Exits

Via Think Progress:

VIRGINIA

D: 52
R: 47

RHODE ISLAND

D: 53
R: 46

PENNSYLVANIA

D: 57
R: 42

OHIO

D: 57
R: 43

NEW JERSEY

D: 52
R: 45

MONTANA

D: 53
R: 46

MISSOURI

D: 50
R: 48

MARYLAND

D: 53
R: 46

TENNESSEE

D: 48
R: 51

ARIZONA

D: 46
R: 50

It's coming fast now.

More Exits

Via Wonkette, more very early numbers:

Some early U.S. Senate exits, with all the normal caveats:

Casey 61 - Santorum 38

Cardin 51 - Steele 48

McCaskill 53 - Talent 46

Webb 55 - Allen 45

First Specific Exit Reports

From MyDD:

Democrats leading in:

* VA: 52-47
* RI: 53-46
* PA: 57-42
* OH: 57-43
* NJ: 52-45
* MT: 53-46
* MO: 50-48
* MD: 53-46

Republicans leading:

* TN: 51-48
* AZ: 50-46

Scorecard

This is the place to be checking throughout the night.

Early Exits

CNN is reporting some early and general exit poll information about voter issues:

Most important issue: It's a close call. 42% say corruption in Washington, followed closely by terrorism, the economy, and Iraq.

57% disapprove of the war in Iraq.

A majority say Democrats can deal well with terrorism and national security.

62% say national issues determined their vote. Politics is not local this year.

Bugs

Our electronic voting machines are just a disaster. Jeff's hometown is being hit particularly hard, it sounds like.

Upsurge

Dems taking over is good for the economy.

Unbelievable

The robo-calling scandal now turns to blackmail. Apparently the Connecticut GOP is telling voters that if they promise to vote Republican, the robo-calls will stop.

Out of the Gate

Well this is predictable.

Final IEM Graph

Virginia Intimidation

MSNBC is reporting that the FBI is investigating reports of Republicans trying to intimidate Virginia voters via phone-calls.

On Robo-Thuggery

First of all, Josh has a summary. The WaPo also has a good piece on the matter. And good on the Dems for coming after these guys and making this an issue. It sounds like the GOP in Indiana has already ordered the calls to be stopped, and the New Hampshire GOP has done likewise after the attorney general got involved. They're probably worried right about now, with memories of the phone-jamming scandal in NH in 2002. I wonder which Republicans will be going to jail this time.

35

Bush's approval rating dips to 35%.

Robocalls

Unsurprisingly, there are reports of very slimy GOP phone tactics surfacing.

T-1

I was gone for a couple of days, and when I got back and checked the newest IEM figures, I was fairly amazed by how the NH_RS value has skyrocketed. The black line is NH_RS (non-Republican House, Republican Senate) and, despite a brief drop after the Kerry kerfuffle, it's now shot past 0.5. The red line, representing RH_RS, continues the trend of the last few months, dropping sharply.

surprised anyone?

I thought this was an interesting little tidbit, even though its not surprising. I wonder what the results would be like in the US. I can't say. But it only adds to my normal election time misery of seeing that now (surely) proven detriment to the country, the two-party system.

Voter Breakdown

This is a pretty cool graphic for the NYT/CBS poll. Beyond the fact that evangelicals are now dead split, I was also impressed that only 2 percent of blacks say they will vote Republican. The Katrina effect is profound.

Boehner

Still won't apologize for blaming the troops.

Criticised and Vilified

Here is the AP story as reported by Yahoo:

President Bush said Wednesday he wants Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Vice President Dick Cheney to remain with him until the end of his presidency, extending a job guarantee to two of the most-vilified members of his administration.

And here's the CNN version:

President Bush said Wednesday he wants Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Vice President Dick Cheney to remain in his administration until the end of his presidency, extending a job guarantee to two of the most-criticized members of his team.

Just a small thing I noticed, and perhaps not that big a deal, but I did think it was interesting that CNN felt the need to soften the language there.

Boehner on Rumsfeld

And via Josh Marshall, Republican John Boehner says not to blame Iraq failures on Rumsfeld, blame them on the soldiers:

BOEHNER: Wolf, I understand that, but let's not blame what's happening in Iraq on Rumsfeld.

BLITZER: But he's in charge of the military.

BOEHNER: But the fact is, the generals on the ground are in charge, and he works closely with them and the president. We've seen this run up in violence as we get closer to the election, as we get closer to Ramadan, same thing we've seen over the last couple of years.

Josh dissects this nicely, and links to the video.

A Gift

Well well well. Bush is in a giving mood before the election. He just gave undecideds the biggest reason yet to vote Democratic or abstain:

President Bush said Wednesday he wants Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Vice President Dick Cheney to remain in his administration until the end of his presidency, extending a job guarantee to two of the most-criticized members of his team.

Fake Outrage, Kerry Edition

When this Kerry kerfuffle erupted on Tuesday, I was convinced that the story would be played out in the MSM by the next morning. I was fairly shocked to wake up Wednesday and see the main news channel sites like CNN and MSNBC still featuring the incident as the front-page item. Even the far-right John Derbyshire wasn't convinced there was anything to talk about:

John Kerry is awful, and anything we can do further to degrade his political prospects is worth doing. But really, I saw a clip of him making the much-deplored remark, and it was obvious that the dimwit in Iraq that he referred to was George W. Bush, not the American soldier. It was a dumb joke badly delivered, but his meaning was plain. My pleasure in watching JK squirm is just as great as any other conservative's, but something is owed to honesty. There's a lot of fake outrage going round here.

The funniest examples of fake outrage are the right-wingers who acknowledge that it was a botched joke about Bush and then proceed to say "it's still indicative of Kerry's disdain for the troops." To say the least, Republicans are desperate in the last few days.

I don't know what to say about the fact that at this moment, on Thursday midday, CNN is still leading with the Kerry story. There's your supposed liberal media for you.

GOP Campaign Distilled

This about says it:

President Bush said Monday that a Democratic triumph in the races for the House and Senate would amount to a victory for terrorists.

Yes, he is that low, that despicable.

Andrew Sullivan

For some reason, many on the left still love to take digs at Andrew Sullivan and treat him as if he's enemy #1. I really don't get it, as he's probably the most intellectually honest and candidly repentant of the high-profile conservative pundits. He's one of the few conservatives trying to rescue conservatism from the theocrats, and to analyze how our foreign and domestic policies have gone so pear-shaped under Bush. Yes, he said some ridiculous things after 9/11. But read this:

On these grounds, I have indeed come to see that many, many liberals are indeed my brothers and my sisters. And increasing numbers of conservatives as well, thank God. For some on the far left, Bush could never have done any right, ever. I'm not going to exculpate the hate-filled parts of the far-left. But many, many others on the left were right about these people in power; and I was wrong. I threw some smug invective their way and, in retrospect, I am ashamed of it. Sure, I recognized my error before the last election, but that doesn't excuse it. Sure, some of it was just misunderstanding each other, in a climate of great fear, and some of it was just my arrogance that I was right. But that doesn't excuse it all either. My book is an attempt to rescue something from the wreckage - an atonement of sorts - and to move forward.

IEM Update

Here are the latest figures from the Iowa Electronic Markets regarding next week's election:

10/30/06 NH_NS06 475/104.318/0.180/0.255/0.220/0.180
10/30/06 NH_RS06 592/286.260/0.451/0.500/0.484/0.483
10/30/06 RH_NS06 169/3.812/0.016/0.043/0.023/0.020
10/30/06 RH_RS06 406/101.631/0.230/0.299/0.250/0.232

The bolded numbers are the current share prices.

Key: NH = Non-Republican House, RH = Republican House, NS = Non-Republican Senate, RS = Republican Senate.

So the market is very strongly favouring a takeover of the House at this point.

Powertools

The Poorman is back, with a cute cat, channeling Powerline:

Tim Blair demolishes the recent so-called “scientific” study which purports to show that Iraqi civilian deaths resulting from the Iraq war number over half a million:

Lancet’s number of documented deaths in Iraq, upon which the respected medical journal based its Iraqi mortality study, is but a mere 0.0835% of Lancet‘s estimated post-invasion death total.

The “estimate” part of Lancet’s equation is 99.9%.

Exactly. Perhaps these geniuses should have taken a class in statistics before they submitted their paper to a prestigious scientific journal which accepted it. What the Lancet study really shows is that 99.9% of 650,000 people are estimated to be dead, which is not at all the same thing as being really dead. I mean, maybe they were just really, really tired after a hard day of greeting US troops as liberators! But, once again, a perfectly plausible explanation is discounted in order to bash Bush.

JOHN adds: Was the Lancet servey undertaken at night? Because that would tend to oversample really deep sleepers, who might well be estimated to be dead.

SCOTT adds: I think you are both being niave. Obviously, the Iraqis were merely pretending to be dead in order to make Bush look bad, and the Lancet “scientists” were only too happy to be their useful idiots.

Posted by Paul at 5:00 PM |

Bellevue Turns

From the NYT:

Bellevue has been growing more Democratic for several years, thanks to an influx of liberal voters and a professional class that is changing teams. This year, Bellevue may send its first Democrat to Congress. Darcy Burner, who even supporters admit is inexperienced, may unseat Representative Dave Reichert, a well-liked, longtime public servant, simply because constituents want Democratic control of the House of Representatives.

“I am a Republican and have traditionally voted that way,” Tony Schuler, an operations services manager at Microsoft with a Harvard M.B.A., said as he sat with his wife, Deanna, in their home above Lake Sammamish. But Mr. Schuler abhors what he sees as a new Republican habit of meddling in private affairs.

“The Schiavo case. Tapping people without a warrant. Whether or not people are gay,” he said. “Let people be free! It’s not government’s job to interfere with those things.”

Timing

Though the House ethics committee has finished its investigation of the Foley matter, the report won't be released before the election:

The House ethics committee has all but wrapped up the investigative phase of its probe into the actions of former representative Mark Foley, informing key witnesses that they will not be summoned back for more questioning, lawyers in the case said yesterday.

But those lawyers indicated that the committee is unlikely to release its report on the Florida Republican -- or even an interim memo -- before the Nov. 7 elections.

In other news, the verdict in Saddam Hussein's trial will be announced two days before the election.

Interesting.

Coffee Break

The Stern Report is out: address climate change now or pay much more later.

The UK hires Al Gore to help argue the climate change case in the US.

527s are stronger than ever.

Democrats running in the centre, seeking moderates and conservatives.

100 Americans killed in Iraq during October.

26 killed in latest Baghdad bombing.

Coffee Break

Uncertain how to gain traction before the election, the Allen campaign strikes out at book characters. Drudge gladly helps.

Australian cleric stands by his comments blaming rape on women and comparing unveiled women to "uncovered meat."

One year on from the French riots.

A weak housing market slows US growth.

Could the timing of the New Jersey same-sex ruling work to Republicans' advantage?

Lauer's Got Limbaugh's Back

Via Digby, a view from the Today Show:

LAUER: And you brought up Michael J. Fox. Let me just ask you: You know, Rush Limbaugh started a lot of controversy when he said perhaps Michael J. Fox was exaggerating or faking these effects of Parkinson's disease in that ad promoting stem cell research. Didn't Rush Limbaugh just say what a lot of people were privately thinking?

[...]

LAUER: But also, Susan, last word. If Michael Fox goes out there politically and puts himself in the fray, he has to expect to be, you know, taken to account, correct?

ESTRICH: Correct. And he is being taken to account.

First, I can only speak for myself, but no, I wasn't privately thinking that Fox was faking and pretending to have Parkinson's symptoms. Second, what the fuck does Fox have to be "held to account" for? For having the illness? For exhibiting symptoms? For advocating research with stem cells? For daring to voice an opinion on a matter that profoundly affects him?

Evangelicals and the War

Support for the Iraq War among evangelicals has slipped to 58% from 71% in September. Looks like we'll have to find another way to hasten The Coming.

Rumsfeld on Terrorism and the Election

This is really something. Rumsfeld was being interviewed by a North Dakota radio host, who described the situation in Iraq thusly:

Here they are, getting up every day saying, “We’ve got an election in two weeks in America, gang, and we want to change horses over there because we don’t like the folks we’re having to deal with now; they’re a little tough on us. So let’s get out there and let’s make some noise.“ I don’t get the sense the American people have a sense they’re being played in that fashion.

Rumsfeld agreed, adding:

Probably not. It’s hard. No one likes to think they’re being manipulated. They believe that they can make their own judgments and the like.

As Think Progress has noted recently, the Bush administration has been making links between increased levels of violence in Iraq and the upcoming election (rather than, say, Ramadan). At the same time, Bush had to admit that there was no evidence suggesting Iraqi insurgents want to affect the elections in Democrats' favour in any way. If anything, the Bush administration is the best friend these terrorists have: they're incompetent, naive and half-assed. But for Bush to say "I don't have any evidence that terrorists want Democrats to win" is a bit like saying "I don't have any evidence you beat your wife." The important thing, to him, is to put that idea out there.

Coffee Break

New Jersey rules that same-sex couples have equal rights.

As GOP candidates try to de-emphasize the war, Bush gets gabby.

Dan Savage does some consulting for Harold Ford.

The CIA tried to strike a deal with Germany over extraordinary rendition.

60 civilians reportedly killed in NATO raid in Afghanistan.

Bush signs the bill authorizing funding for the fence that will never be.

Racist GOP Ad Removed

A day after Mehlman insisted the race-baiting ad was appropriate, it has been removed from airplay. The next bit speaks for itself:

In its place is a new spot called “Shaky,” which started airing Sunday in Knoxville but has expanded statewide. It alleges that Ford “took cash from Hollywood's top X-rated porn moguls” and that he “wants to give the abortion pill to our schoolchildren.”

Classy.

Missouri Stem Cell Ads

So Limbaugh apologized and then unapologized for his despicable comments alleging that Fox was exaggerating his illness. I think that this Limbaugh fallout is really resonating with large swathes of the heartland in the same way that the Terry Schiavo case did, potentially provoking another huge backlash for conservatives. In the Schiavo case, we saw conservatives trying to speak for a brain-dead woman while making all sorts of horrendous slanders against her husband, and people were revolted by their attempts to score a few political points. It backfired spectacularly. Even commentators in the religious conservative heartland see Limbaugh's attack on Fox as inexcusable, hate-filled and wrong.

And apparently, according to Limbaugh and friends, it's wrong for someone who actually suffers from Parkinson's Disease to make a commercial in which he exhibits symptoms of that disease, but a rebuttal ad featuring a sitcom start, an NFL player and an actor who played Jesus is to be lauded. At least Jonah and some others have some sense about them, it seems. Mind-bogglingly, Caviezel is apparently saying "you betray me with a kiss" (if you support this amendment). Kathryn thinks that the ad is "cool" and "subtle." Yeah, having a fake Jesus warning voters not to betray him is very, very subtle.

Newsweek on Impeachment

Regarding the link about support for impeachment below, I think it's a bit odd the way that Newsweek downplays the numbers. The relevant information comes near the end of the piece, but the total percentage of support is never even spelled out. Furthermore, it's made to sound as if the numbers in general are low:

Other parts of a potential Democratic agenda receive less support, especially calls to impeach Bush: 47 percent of Democrats say that should be a “top priority,” but only 28 percent of all Americans say it should be, 23 percent say it should be a lower priority and nearly half, 44 percent, say it should not be done.

So 51% of all Americans think it should at least be a priority. Newsweek describes this as unpopular. I can't help but think that if it was Clinton who was still president and 51% wanted him to go, the headlines would be screaming "Majority Demands Clinton Impeachment."

Coffee Break

New political tactic: you're ugly. Nah.

Casey predicts 12 to 18 months for security handover.

The UK plans to limit the rights of Bulgarians and Romanians to work in the country after joining the EU.

51% of Americans think Bush should be impeached.

Though they've dropped their stay the course mantra, the GOP promises no big policy shifts on Iraq.

Bad news for mobile men.

Coffee Break

Uh, did I say arrogant and stupid?

California Republican tries to intimidate Latino voters with mass mailing threatening jail time.

Barack Obama admits that he's considering a White House run.

Republicans explore the power of happy talk.

It's 1956 all over again.

UN envoy in international blogging incident.

Darfur: all previous ceasefires are no longer in effect.

Tigers even it up.

Happy Eid.

War Metaphor

The lede of this Post piece is really odd, with its over-use of war imagery and insinuations that a Democratic victory next month would somehow be akin to insurrection and violence on the homefront:

The White House is bracing for guerrilla warfare on the homefront politically if Republicans lose control of the House, the Senate or both _ and with it, the president's ability to shape and dominate the national agenda.

Republicans are battling to keep control of Congress. But polls and analysts in both parties increasingly suggest Democrats will capture the House and possibly the Senate on Election Day Nov. 7.

It goes on to be a pretty straightforward piece about lame-duck presidencies, but it sure starts off in a strange manner. It even seem that they're trying to make a very unseemly parallel between the Iraqi insurgency and Democratic opposition at home. If so, that's far beyond the pale.

Uzhasni Chelovek

This is beyond comprehension:

Vladimir Putin's international image has been tainted after it emerged he had let slip another of his infamous remarks - this time praising the president of Israel for alleged sex offences.

"He turned out to be a strong man, raped 10 women," the Russian president was quoted by Russian media as saying at a meeting in Moscow with Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert. "I never would have expected it of him. He has surprised us all, we all envy him!"

New GOP Ad

If you don't vote Republican, terrorists will kill you.

The RNC really has no shame.

Pace on Rumsfeld

God's work? Wtf?

Via Sullivan

Who Votes?

Lots of interesting data here on which sections of the population really get out and vote. Some of it's not surprising - Republicans are more likely to be registered and frequent church-goers are more likely to vote regularly. But other figures did surprise me:



A very critical factor in whether someone gets out and votes if whether she is interested in local politics or not. It makes sense that that would be a big factor, but I didn't realize how large of one. Especially when we think of how polarized the nation is on a national level, it's really the case that local issues are making the difference in engaging people.

Kuo on Colbert

Stephen Colbert and David Kuo discuss the differences (if any) between Jesus and George W. Bush:

Truth stranger than....

I almost couldn't believe my eyes when I saw this coup de grace for the Foley scandal. If only he could have secretly had an abortion at a clinic run by a Islamist terrorist organisation.

Republican Infighting

The NYT has an interesting piece on the current feuds with conservatism. This quote made me laugh:

“There is a bit of a battle between people who say, Hey, your tax cuts wrecked our war and people who say, Hey, your war wrecked our tax cuts,” said David Frum, a former Bush speechwriter who was among the war’s proponents.

Frum then goes on to employ the the competence dodge:

Mr. Frum argued that the problem with the Iraq war was in its execution, not in the idea behind it. “The war has to be seen through the prism of Hurricane Katrina,” he argued, “because conservatives will support a tough war if they are confident in the war’s management.”

Anyone still arguing that the war was a good idea that was simply mismanaged is either an incredible fool or is too wrapped up in his self-image to admit that he was wrong.

Reconstruction

Think Progress put together this graph from Brookings Institution data, showing electricity levels in Baghdad for the past two years or so:

Africa in Motion, First Night

The opening film of the Edinburgh African Film Festival is tonight at 5:45 pm at The Filmhouse.

Evangelicals and the GOP

Pew just put up a bunch of interesting info on political attitudes of evangelicals towards the GOP. These were the charts I thought were most telling:





They're basically hemorrhaging their core voting block.

Update: Notice what a huge impact Katrina had on evangelicals' views of the GOP. That's when the jarring descent to 54% occurred.

Africa in Motion

Just a reminder: Africa-in-Motion, the Edinburgh African Film Festival, begins tomorrow.

Coffee Break

Black Republicans try to adopt MLK as the face of the party.

Bush acknowledges Iraq/Vietnam similarities.

GOP candidates are avoiding discussion of the war.

Rice attempts to reassure South Korea and Japan over NK threat.

NFL dirty bomb threat not credible.

A challenge for any enterprising folks out there.

Kim

Jeff and I were both struck by this photo from yesterday's NYT:

Blogging Heads

I haven't had a chance to watch this yet, but it looks like BloggingHeadsTV has some good stuff up. I'm excited to read Anatol Lieven's new book.

We were.....inverted

More evidence that Democrats are always wrong about everything and therefore want to be Republican? Check out the quasi-Harding quote:

"Good policy is good politics," the governor says, when asked if her tax breaks involved political calculation. "What's good for GM is good for Michigan."

Also, I can't help but get the feeling when reading these stories that twenty years from now I look back on their indelible image.

On a lighter side, from my friend's website: I am going to be laughing at this picture of P.Diddy all day.

No Blog But Blog...Coffee Edition

A train collision in Rome kills two and injures at least 60.

The US confirms NK's first nuclear test and there's word of another in the works.

What the hell is with this peice on Cheney? Sure, his popularity is staggeringly low, but a few people love him!

Iraq: Not the best place to be a Christian.

The title says it all.

Republican Curt Weldon's daughter's home is raided in an investigation into whether Weldon used his position to benefit himself and his daughter's lobbying firm.

The Iowa Electronic Market is currently favoring a Republican Senate and Non-Republican House after the election (select CONGRESS06, then October).

Generation Influence

I think this graphic in the NYT, based on Pew Research data, is really fascinating. It's looking at numbers of self-identified Democrats and Republicans, broken down by age group and by who was president when that age-group was 20 years old. One of the things to take away from this is that the political climate of your early 20s largely determines your political leanings throughout the rest of your life, on average. So we see that people who were 20 when Truman was in office or when Nixon resigned are very likely to be Democrats now, whereas people who were 20 when Reagan was in office are now likely to be Republicans.

I was 20 in 1997, as Bill Clinton began his second term. So my early twenties stretched from the beginning of that term, through Newt Gingrich's reprimand for ethics violations, the Ken Starr investigation, the shady 2000 election, September 11th, and Bush's first couple years in office. We'll have to see how I pan out later in life.

I can think of many examples who buck the trend of this data, my own father being an interesting example.

Update: Another thing I just noticed that's really interesting is that the gap in years between the most Democratic and least Democratic generations is much larger than the gap between most Republican and least Republican. For Democrats, the lowest numbers are for the age group around 71 whereas the highest numbers are for age group 21. For Republicans, the highest numbers are for age 36 and the lowest are for age 24. For one thing, this shows a precipitous drop in self-identifying Republicans since Reagan left office, a relatively short period of time. Bush II certainly has dismantled conservatism.

I think that Democrats should take heart from this data. If we think of the political power being wielded, at any given point, by people between the ages of 50 and 70 or so (i.e. the age group from which our politicians themselves are usually drawn, and the age group most likely to get out and vote), then we are currently going through a Republican swing, but there will be large Democrat spikes in that age-range in years to come. People who are just over 50 years old right now are very likely to be Democrat. There may be another Republican spike in about 15 years, but after that it will largely favour Democrats. Overwhelmingly so, according to this data.

Sullivan and Brooks

I haven't had a chance to watch this yet, but it could be an interesting debate on the current dire state of conservatism, from the two premier pop conservative commentators.

Lieberman's Thoughts on the Dems

The idea that Lieberman is anything other than a Republican has been erased:

Joseph I. Lieberman, a lifelong Democrat and student of politics, blanked when asked if America would be better off with his party regaining control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

A Democratic victory would immeasurably boost the influence of two Connecticut friends, U.S. Reps. Rosa L. DeLauro and John B. Larson, and provide a counterbalance to the Republican Senate and White House.

"Uh, I haven't thought about that enough to give an answer," Lieberman said, as though Democrats' strong prospects for recapturing the House hadn't been the fall's top political story.

He was similarly elusive about the race for governor. Is he voting for John DeStefano Jr., a Democrat and mayor of the city where Lieberman has lived since the 1960s?

"I'm, uh, I'm having," he stammered, then laughed and said his decision would remain private.

Via TPMCafe.

Sullivan on Colbert

Just ordered his book yesterday.

TPMCafe

I don't think there's any better blog-style discussion forum going, especially for foreign policy, than TPMCafe. To give just a small sampling of recent goodies:

Stephen Walt responds to the Princeton Project's FWLL.

Anatol Lieven on ethical realism.

Rachel Kleinfeld responds to Lieven and is subsequently schooled by Lieven.

Dan Drezner notes that it's a buyer's market in grand strategies, what with the wholesale failure of 43's foreign policy, and he takes on the FWLL.

Peter Trubowitz argues that, regardless of its merits, the FWLL could never generate bipartisan support.

Coffee Break

America prepares to pass the 300m population mark, being the only industrialized country to continue to put on significant population growth.

Terry Lloyd was unlawfully killed by US forces, the coroner rules.

British general Richard Dannatt states that UK forces should be withdrawn soon.

Microloan pioneers awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Bush aides think evangelicals are nuts.

British man pleads guilty to terrorist plot.

UN close to a decision on NK: sanctions, no military force.

Losing the Evangelicals

This looks very bad for Republicans:



Via Andy.

Newsday

It amazes me sometimes to see all the people who find themselves in positions of influence because they only make you wonder how they got there. That is true (for different reasons) for some of those who are geniuses as well. Meet the 27 yr old grad student that first joined a little-known company PayPal, then went on to co-invent YouTube. Some people are truly one in a billion.

Also, hopefully this will spell the end to the daily re-reports about the shootings in an Amish schoolhouse.

Realising that a two-state solution is the only way to stop what Israel really fears--a state in which there is an Arab majority--Rice heroically steps in to hail the need for Palenstinians be able to reach their potential. I find it all very fascinating:

I can only tell you that I, too, have a personal commitment to that goal because I believe that there could be no greater legacy for America than to help to bring into being a Palestinian state for a people who have suffered too long, who have been humiliated too long, who have not reached their potential for too long,” she said.

Belated Coffee Break

Blogger problems all morning...

Apparently Mark Warner will not run for president. Seems like strange timing.

Yankees pitcher Corey Lidle is killed in a plane crash after flying through Manhattan's congested airspace.

Foley keeps on giving.

Turkish writer Orhan Pamuk has been awarded the Nobel Prize for Literature.

France throws down another gauntlet in Turkey's attempt to become part of Europe.

Oil prices plummet prior to election, but production is likely to be cut after November.

When Cornerites Interview Each Other

Hilarious:

K-Lo: I know I still do this and the day I don’t I’ll hand in my resignation letter …Do you ever stop and think, Geez, man, this is NATIONAL REVIEW? How cool is this? How damn lucky am I?

Jonah: Almost everyday.

Hilariously self-serving and pointless. Happy 10 years, guys.

Coffee Break

A new study estimates that 655,000 Iraqis have been killed since the invasion.

North Korea warns that sanctions will be treated as a declaration of war.

John and Hillary used to have something of a friendship...

Everyone's still lining up against Hastert.

More evidence that free speech in the US is limited to non-Israeli issues.

Dems aim for the red states.

Here's a little poll round-up.

More Blame Clinton

McCain continues down the the lonely road of destroying all his credibility for the sake of partisanship. I have to say, the new GOP mantra of "Blame Clinton for absolutely everything" isn't really the way to instill faith in your ability to govern, or to convince people that you believe in a responsible conservatism. If they really think this'll help them on Nov. 7th, then by all means...but it's a ridiculous spectacle.

Not to mention that it's the opposite of the truth.

Update: Josh smacks McCain and Rice, and the Washington Post spells out our North Korea policy failure under Bush.

Policy Failure

A more sane commentary from The Corner, courtesy of Jonah:

Lots of folks think this nuke thing is good news for the GOP because it puts national security in play and diminishes the Foley stuff. As political analysis, I think that's probably right. But let's keep in mind that North Korea's nuke testing constitutes a failure of US policy. We can debate the details and the extenuating circumstances, but President Bush denounced the Axis of Evil five years ago and promised that he would do everything to keep its members from getting nukes. Well, North Korea just detonated one. Iran is well on its way to getting one. And Iraq, well, that's not quite the bright spot we hoped it would be.

The part I'd disagree with is the CW that national security works to the advantage of the GOP. Clearly, not anymore.

Seriousness of the Day

In a post called "Is America Serious? Are Democrats?", John Hood seems to suggest that the North Korea crisis is all down to weak-kneed Dems:

Is America serious about confronting this threat? Are we willing to do what it takes to rally our allies and destroy our enemies? Will we take whatever action is necessary, including military action, to prevent Iran from following North Korea’s lead? Do we have the fortitude and the wisdom to confront the Taliban and al Qaeda without tipping Pakistan, another nuclear state, into a dangerous civil war? Will we leave Iraq precipitously and embolden our adversaries to take their war into Europe and closer to our shores?

Some partisan Republicans see all these questions as prompts for partisan attack. I understand that. But what I would welcome with relief and gratitude would be strong leadership from the Democratic party — from prominent Democrats who, regardless of the outcome on Election Day, are going to play a key role in discussing, forming, and carrying out American policy. I’d like to see evidence that they understand the existential threat we face — and that it has nothing to do with fantasies about Rove fingering their library records or GOP leaders shielding pedophiles.

Regardless of election day...this coming from a stooge for the president who will not even considering changing strategy in Iraq until after election day. It's downright stomach-churning to see a partisan hack pretending to be so nonpartisan, defaming the Democratic party as he pretends to be making a call for bipartisanship.

And as far as the NK crisis itself, I refer you again to Josh.

Discussing Israel

It's often said that any open discussion of Israel is stifled in the US. This is an amazing and ridiculous example of how true that can be.

Josh Marshall on NK

He's got the best rundown on the situation that I've read so far.

The name says it all

Sometimes a headline is just too good not to pass on, and I thought this one would be worthy of sharing. Plus, I like to see democracy in action.
Coming in second place is a story which actually is one that brings some understanding where there was none before. But that doesn't stop it from being funny.

Also, in celebrating multi-culturalism, multi-nationalism and a general enjoyment of holidays, I would like to wish Canadians happy Thanksgiving. Good on you for beating Americans to it yet another year. The only thing I don't understand is why you celebrate by acting like turkeys. It's dangerous.

Africa in Motion

If you happen to be in Edinburgh at the end of October, check out Africa in Motion, the Edinburgh African Film Festival.

Coffee Break

Bush is standing by his man.

Jack Straw would like to see your face.

This weekend could be interesting.

Are US teens abandoning their faith?

The Ig Nobels are awarded.

Americans don't trust or support the GOP.

We Undermine the Perverts at Our Own Peril

I can't add too much to the debate at this point, except to point out my astonishment that the GOP would be willing to cover up for this creep for years, illustrating their utter hypocrisy concerning family values and supposed moral superiority. The newest sickening twist, and there have been several, is that pundits such as those employed by The Wall Street Journal are so desperate about the political fall-out that they're trying to turn the whole Foley saga into an example of liberal hypocrisy. As everyone from Andrew Sullivan to Jon Stewart has noted by now, equating pedophelia and homosexuality is repulsive, and trying to blame Foley's actions on the Democrats' fight for homosexual rights is just...sick.

Hastert, of course, has to go. He thought it was just fine to allow a predatory creep to remain in a position that allowed him access to underage pages, and to keep this information confined to a small circle, and that's just not acceptable. Hastert, hilariously, sees the widespread criticism of him as some sort of attack on the country itself:

But, you know, this is a political issue in itself, too, and what we've tried to do as the Republican Party is make a better economy, protect this country against terrorism -- and we've worked at it ever since 9/11, worked with the president on it -- and there are some people that try to tear us down. We are the insulation to protect this country, and if they get to me it looks like they could affect our election as well.

Yes, undermine the perverts at our own peril, so to speak.

And it's fascinating that he chose Rush Limbaugh's show to defend himself. Let's let Glenn have the last words:

If the term "moral degenerate" has any validity and can be fairly applied to anyone, there are few people who merit that term more than Rush Limbaugh. He is the living and breathing embodiment of moral degeneracy, with his countless overlapping sexual affairs, his series of shattered, dissolved marriages, his hedonistic and illegal drug abuse, his jaunts, with fistfulls of Viagra (but no wife), to an impoverished Latin American island renowned for its easy access to underage female prostitutes.

Yet that is who Hastert chose as the High Priest of the Values Voters to whom he made his pilgrimage and from whom he received his benediction.

Seriousness of the Day

Apparently, opposing specific inhumane torture techniques is unserious and irresponsible:

What kind of damage could this do? Islamists who watch American media will note the exceptions McCain listed and tell their operatives that they will not need to prepare for waterboarding and can prepare for less rigorous techniques. While it isn't quite the same thing as telling them all of the approved techniques, it gives another edge to the Islamists -- an edge we didn't need to give them.

Serious and responsible people would understand this. Apparently, John McCain doesn't qualify as either.

Please, can we have a modicum of seriousness?

Mail-Order Venison

The Editors manage to get George Allen off the hook.

Greenwald vs. Goldberg

Aka, Goldberg vs. History. I love how easily Greenwald hands Jonah's ass to him on a platter:

It is hard to overstate how false Goldberg's claim is, as even Byron York reported, in Goldberg's own magazine, National Review (emphasis added): "Instead of striking a strong blow against terrorism, the action [launching cruise missiles at Osama bin Laden] set off a howling debate about Clinton's motives. The president ordered the action three days after appearing before the grand jury investigating the Monica Lewinsky affair, and Clinton's critics accused him of using military action to change the subject from the sex-and-perjury scandal -- the so-called 'wag the dog' strategy."

Leading GOP political figures and pundits repeatedly voiced such criticisms against Clinton:

You can read the damning list from there. Jonah is forced to admit that it's a good list, but strikes back with the assertion that...Greenwald's annoying. Snap!

Seriousness of the Day

I mean, Hugh Hewitt of the day:

President Bush and the GOP are serious about the war. The Democrats are not, are in fact dangerously ill-informed about the threat, and their "strategy" is a recipe for disaster. All of this is becoming so blindingly clear that the consequences will show in November.

If Hewitt so desired, I'm sure I could write a simple computer program that would generate his daily posts for him.

Coffee Break

Shrill Clinton gets Rice in a huff. As The Editors note, only shrillness can save us now.

A scrubbed-down and renovated Superdome plays host to an emotional Saints victory.

Cherie Blair apparently thinks Gordon Brown is a liar. Or a similar-sounding word.

I can't wait to see Musharraf on the Daily Show.

Europe: surreptitiously taking over the world.

I'm guessing he was the al Qaeda #2.

Extra Bonus Seriousness of the Day

This is about as succinct as it gets. And he even quotes Hewitt!

Seriousness of the Day

Meetings are not serious:

There have been, what, a thousand meetings at every level from platoon to the Office of the Secretary and the Oval Office, from the mid-ninties until today, and bin Laden is still not captured or known to be dead. By now the Bush Adminsitration has certainly passed the Clinton Adminsitration in "meetings held" by a factor unknowable but certain to be large.

"Meetings held" like the demotion of Richard Clarke are the parts of the Clinton narrative that most offend serious people, because neither mean anything.

Seriousness of the Day

I was in Pittsburgh for a week, so blogging was on hold. But the master, Hugh Hewitt, never goes on vacation. Here's his interview with Thomas Edsall:

HH: One of the interesting passages, and very candid ones in Building Red America is where you recognize the security gap between Democrats and Republicans. And you write about the fact that the Pelosi Democrats, the Ned Lamont Democrats, the Harry Reid and Howard Dean Democrats have really lost the confidence of America on national security issues. Do you think it’s fair for Americans to judge them less serious about security than Republicans?

TE: Yeah, I think they come out of an anti-war tradition, anti…their voting records of Democrats on the whole is much more anti-defense weapons systems. And there is, as I’ve said at the beginning of this interview, an underlying hostility to people in the military among many on the left.

Update: This is too easy.

Extra Bonus Seriousness

It's hard to keep up with the seriousphere. Here's Michael Tanji from the Weekly Standard:

IT TOOK ONLY A FEW MINUTES for media outlets to disseminate headlines about how the recent Senate Select Committee on Intelligence report comparing pre-war intelligence claims against post-war findings was a refutation of the stated reasons for overthrowing Saddam Hussein. Focusing on the conclusions of the multi-section report, most news accounts walked down a checklist of the "lies" allegedly perpetrated by the Bush administration.

But the SSCI report is of limited use for anyone seriously attempting to understand what was--and was not--going on in pre-war Iraq.

Senate report, schmenate report. Facts and findings are not serious until we confer seriousness upon them.